Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Half the field will have to collapse and Tacitus would have to run a lifetime top for him to win.
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The form of the Classic probables going into the Classic is quite interesting and leaves a lot of question marks.
First, as it stands now, Tacitus and Authentic will be the only horses with a start in October. Improbable and Maximum Security ran in late September. All others "trained up to the race".
Of those "training up to the race" only Global Campaign has trained in his regular pattern since his last start. Curiously, all others have drunk the Baffert Kool-Aid and decided that their horses need to rattle off bullet work after bullet work heading into the Classic:
By My Standards' last 3 works were bullets when he usually works slow and only works fast right before a race. Tom's d'Etat took 6 weeks to work back from the Whitney and his last 2 works were bullets going 6 furlongs; he rarely breezed fast previously. Higher Power, who didn't show up for the Fayette, has 3 fast works at 6f and 7f since shipping to KY.
Barclay Tagged adopted a bullet-fest work pattern for Tiz The Law after his Belmont win; prior to that, the horse would work in mostly modest times. He significantly skipped the Preakness when reportedly "not ready to work" and only did work 3 weeks after the Derby (whereas he worked back within 2 weeks of his previous 2 races). His second work back was a botch job, going 5f in a ridiculous :57+. His last 2 works have been fast 6f moves, a distance he hadn't breezed since March, not even during the hiatus between the FL Derby and Belmont.
The 3 horses from the beleaguered Baffert barn are obviously working fast though curiously Maximum Security, who ran the worst race of his career last out, only went 5 furlongs in his last work while the other 2 went 7 furlongs. He's been working in company (and galloped out strongly in the last one) so maybe that explains the choice of distance. Even in his wins this year he's looked ordinary at best.
Given many of the above are coming off losses, have health questions, have stamina concerns, and yet have ramped up work patterns, we might very well witness a battle of attrition that a horse like Tacitus would need to make a dent.
Tacitus had a moderate half mile work since the JCGC. He normally works decent times, but we'll see if the experienced Mott foolishly tries to do something out of the ordinary. Hopefully, with plenty of races under his belt, he simply stays on a maintenance pattern and then one can start visiting church and praying for "blinkers off".
