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Jeff Platt did some very interesting research in this area which I found very helpful. Essentially, place odds are very different than win odds and should be treated accordingly.
The favorite is 32% to win, 20% to place. The 4th favorite is 17% to win, 16% to place. At face value, the favorite has a 52% chance to come in first and second and the 4th favorite only 33%. But, the place odds are much closer, 20% compared to 16%. If the favorite doesn't run their best race, their chances of running second aren't improved relative to the win slot. The 4th or 5th choice may not be good enough to make a winning bid and thus, they have a better chance of picking up the pieces and coming in second. Makes sense after seeing the numbers.
My take - you can't use win odds for determining an overlay in the second spot ...or 3rd, 4th.
That said, lower-priced combinations do seem to be underplayed compared to two longshots in the first two spots.
Would like to hear the take of more successful players.
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