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Originally Posted by Secondbest
To me he's the Biggest mystery of the race.Off his race in tampa he looked like he was on course.Then TAP decided the race was too good and decided to layoff.He had no works for 3 weeks and now has 2 works of 4 and a 5f. 3 weeks to go and no long works so far. Last year in a radio interview He said his horses run best after 5-6 weeks off.if he gets 7f like AP did and is Sharp who knows. As of now I' m not sure.
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Somebody pointed out to me last year that Pletcher's horses perform the best in the Derby after coming off 3 weeks rest. I crunched the numbers after he said that and he was right;
He's ran 19 horses in the Derby off of a 3 week rest and has finished in the super 7 times (1-2-2-2 record) with them. He's ran 22 horses in the Derby off of a rest of 4 or more weeks and he only has but a single 3rd place finish to show for it by Revolutionary a few years ago (0-0-1-0 record). Two other runners of his ran off of a rest of less than 3 weeks.
His preference may be to rest his horses longer and the results may back it up in other races. But in the Derby itself it seems like 3 weeks rest is best for his horses and their results.
