Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer
I do.
Horse Racing is part of the fabric of our society.
You do think people weren't saying the same thing 50 years ago?
Oaklawn was days away from closing the doors until the advent is simulcasting.
Later it was saved by Instant Racing.
Now it's couldn't survive without the casino.
There's always going to be something. Perhaps the race tracks will make less $$$ but the sport dying is NOT going to happen. Too large of a core that loves racing. And don't say their fan base is going to die off. People have been saying that for three generations.
Hollywood Park closing didn't kill So Cal. Bay Meadows closing didn't kill SF. Arlington?? Well that's another story and it remains to be seen.
And I can GARE ON TEE you the CAW's aren't going anywhere. They bring an insane amount of handle.
As I said before I think the answer is contraction. Will I feel bad for the smaller venues that won't survive? Yes 100%.
But more money would be bet Nationwide by far if there were only 5 signals in the winter and maybe twice that in the summer. MTH would be one. Field size would go up. Quality of the signals would go up. And people would adapt.
In the winter there could be three eastern signals. NYRA, Gulfstream & KY. Sorry Jason. OAKLAWN can handle central time and we can wrap up the day with So.Cal.
Part of what's damaging racing is their inability to cull the weak links from the crop!
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Okay Vic. I have looked over horse racing handles since 1990. They are as follows. I am just going to present them in 5 year intervals to 2015 and then present 2023. The first figure will be actual handle and the second figure is what that handle should equate to in 2023 numbers (according to an inflation calculator). Figures are in billions:
1990:10.208, 23.784
1995: 11.224, 22,48
2000: 15.042, 26.624
2005: 15.376, 23.986
2010: 12.076, 16.096
2015: 11.290, 14.564
2023: 12.984
So there you have it up until the year 2000 horse racing was on the rise. Fairly steady through 2005 (rebates were in their infancy during this stage) and then boom. 30% drop from 2005 to 2010, 10% further drop from 2010 to 2015, and another 10% drop from 2015 to 2023. Now the part of the equation we don't know is what percentage of the volume was caw at each of these data points. I am guessing that it was around 5% of total handle in 2005 and I would not be shocked if it was as high as 40% today.
But bottom line is that since 2000 (23 years) we have saw handle go from
26.624 billion in todays dollar to 12.984 in todays dollar. Moreover in 2000 Caw/heavily rebated players I am not even sure if they had entered the picture yet but if they had, they made up 2% of the pool max. Today if they make up (lets be conservative) 1/3rd of the pool, that accounts for 4.328 billion. So from 2000 to 2023 non heavily rebated bettors went from 23.5 billion to 8.6 billion. That is a 63.4% drop. We know that Caw is being rebated at levels far greater than they were. So there is little reason to think that without corrective action that the next 23 years will not have at least an equally as dramatic negative effect (I actually think it is closer to 15 years than 23 years this time around). So that would mean todays 8.6 Billion in 2023 dollars would drop to 3.15 Billion in 2023 retail dollars. So by my conservative estimation, in 46 years 2000 to 2046, when not looking at heavily rebated dollars (retail) the racing industry is on course to go from 23.3 billion in 2023 dollars to 3.15 Billion in 2023 dollars. Of course with that heavy drop off in retail volume comes heavy drop offs in many other revenue streams for this industry. I wonder what Mr. Repole thinks of that data. Perhaps it is a little more significant than where Hawthorne or Canterbury have instant success with their limited takeout reduction (which I do applaud).
