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Old 12-12-2017, 07:34 PM   #12
FakeNameChanged
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnGalt1 View Post
I'm handicapping FG Thursday 9/14 and found a perfect example of why I started this thread.

Race one--#8 Diva's Ransom 7-2 ML

Last raced Oct 21

Last workout Feb 12

Trainer is 4 for 38 this year.

3 for 11 27% 46-90 day layoff

When I handicap a layoff horse I use the best/fastest/most representative race for a pace line.

July 5, off since may 19, she won 5f at Evd in 58.3.

That race she also won off a lay off since he last race was Feb 12 for that race.

I believe fillies and mares usually cab race well with fewer and or shorter works, but id do not trust it.

I am passing the race.
I'd have no problem tossing the 8. She hasn't hit the board in 5 races at this distance. Six other horses in this race have won or placed at 6f. When she won after a layoff at 5f, she was dropping from 10000 to 5000 State Bred races. If she beats me, hats off to her trainer, and move on.
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