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A couple of comments about this discussion.
First, exacta overlay charts. They are essentially useless. Why? Because the determination as to whether an exacta is an overlay or not is based on the win odds of the horses involved. Since the win odds at most tracks change drastically at the last minute, the determination of an overlay in the exacta pool is generally not possible with enough time to react in the form of a wager. That is, the basis for considerating an exacta overlaid may change dramatically when the price of the top horse (for example) goes up a point or more at the last second (or even after the race has begun). Similarly, the last minute exacta punches are also coming in very late which makes the certainty of an overlay very difficult.
In fact, the layout of the exacta probables is an excellent barometer of how the final win odds will settle. Since this is true, about all these exacta probables are good for is helping you determine if the late money was "inside" in the sense that it went contrary to the exacta-table's determination of price-value.
Next. As I have said many times, the larger the potential outcomes in a given pool, the more it is skewed toward favored combinations. I won't go over this again, because by now this statement should be settled law. Therefore, if you are planning on using a favorite in the exacta, you are actually better off just playing the horse to win and forgetting gimmicks altogether. Why??
Because any rational assessment that leads to playing a favorite must be based on a determination of value. That is, even though the horse will be favored, you have reason to believe that his closing price will be higher than it should be. Since wagering-pool inefficiencies are difficult to find in the first place (keeping in mind that we are fighting an onerous takeout), by playing the horse in gimmicks, you are combining the favorite with (most probably) underlaid animals. This combination of a skewed pool and the combination of your (hopefully) overlaid horse with underlaid animals is deadly over the long haul. Furthermore, dutching these probables does absolutely nothing to mitigate their essential lack of value.
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