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I don't mind a horse showing only short works if it hasn't races in two months.
For a longer layoff I almost always bet against them and accept the fact they will occasionally beat me. I do keep in mind how often I have seen the trainer win with these types, but even then I would rather pass than bet these horses.
I think the crowd puts too much emphasis on trainer statistics with little regard for how a trainer prepares his layoff winners, so I feel these types of winning horses are virtually always underlays.
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“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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