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Originally Posted by TheOracle
So it begs the question, are there certain instances where it's better to play the favorite and not try to beat him?
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There are many, many scenarios. Many factors to consider. Here's a general approach to look at based on the Contrarian/Kinky handicapping idea;
Look at some of the factors traditionally used to identify False Favorites. If you're looking for some, try this link:
http://www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT020308.htm
-Use favorites that meet these factors (more than one is preferable).
-Look for positive that might outweigh the negatives.
(keep in mind that what you see may already be accounted for by the handicapping public and be reflected in the price of your "overlay"- meaning they're right about value and you're wrong.)
Here's a link that shows an example of a possible "jockey-trainer combo" angle (system) that might outweigh the false favorite warning signs.
http://www.horse-racing-book.com/free-horse-racing-system.html
Add a couple of speed, class etc. qualifiers and check it out. Remember that absolute rigidity in the "rules" is absolutely the best path to long-term losses. Too much flexibility is just as bad, if not worse,
(Also, try experimenting with it but leave out the "false favorite" signs).
I use a low-volume/high win percentage/low-priced horse approach that is Contrarian in nature and no inviolable rules. A very small margin for error and profit. Needs lots of patience and discipline. You never chase plays, the plays have to come to you.
Has a sensible use of traditional handicapping fundamentals and some nifty applications of statistical functions....Inspired by Vince Lombardi's football philosophy of "Attack strength with strength. Don't attack weakness with strength"....Contrarian like "the best offense is a good defense" or basketball's "pressing teams don't like to be pressed."
It works for me, but it is definitely,definitely not for everyone.
