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Originally Posted by castaway01
But setting the morning line is only "handicapping" in the sense of trying to predict what the crowd will make the final odds, not predicting a winner. Just because the ML maker decides to put a "5" at the end of the odds for the favorite is not "handicapping". I thought you were trying to make some point about public handicappers that might be useful. This is just a coincidence, and it's a coincidence involving low-odds horses. Betting on coincidences with low-odds horses is not a way to make money.
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Hey Cast,
I get what you're saying the ML maker is just predicting the final odds that the public will make and is not necessarily trying to predict a winner. So odds ending, in say, 5 is not his prediction of who should win the race but how the public will bet.
However, I am still intrigued by the coincidence and how often at times in the short run it lands on the winner or hits the board.
When I saw this:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/...ighlight=%40SAR
I thought there was some type of shenanigans happening where only people in the know were able to capitalize on the occurrences but even if they were it would still be very hard to prove since there is not enough data to show a trend.
Even with all that it's still way better than what I was doing previously.
So it begs the question, are there certain instances where it's better to play the favorite and not try to beat him?
