Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I have worked on the turf puzzle for the better part of the last 40 years...and I still remain as confused as I was as a youngster. There isn't a single turf handicapping component that I haven't thoroughly investigated...and none of them have satisfied me in any way, shape or form. So disenchanted have I become with turf racing that I am now considering becoming a bookie and accepting only the turf-race wagers of whatever horseplayers I happen to meet. I don't see how such a venture could fail...even if I offer a generous rebate. If you can't beat them...then you ought to join them, I say.
Good luck on your own turf investigation...but I wouldn't bet on your success chances.
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We have similar feelings on the matter.
Speed figures and class comparisons get you into the ballpark, but if you understand how turf speed figures they are made, you quickly realize they aren't really speed figures at all. They are often best guesses based on prior figures which were of course also often best guesses to begin with.
Among very lightly raced maidens and ALW horses where less data is available to work with they are occasionally so ridiculously wrong it's laughable. Big changes are often made as horses come back out of the races.
I think the "key" is probably building a model that's some combination of the horse getting good position turning for home without being used too hard and then the ability to finish fast. But the "ability to finish fast" is very difficult to measure because it's dependent on the fractions and energy consumed before that last 1/4 mile or so to begin with.
So finding a formula that correctly accounts for how much energy the horse used early, how fast he finished, translating that into a rating, and wondering if this specific horse fits into some standard generalized model is borderline mind numbing.
I make very few big bets on turf.
I more or less "class" handicap them and just glance at the speed figures. I am looking for horses that have been competing well at the current class or higher to identify the contenders.
Then I'm looking for spectacular bursts of late speed, especially if that horse was the only one gaining ground and running fast at the end of a race.
I still look at probable race flow today, but it carries way less weight with me on turf.
Overall, I've probably done better in recent years than I used to, but my confidence level is way lower. I can't bring myself to punch a big ticket unless there's some horse I absolutely hate in the race for some reason. Then the bet is less about my ability to find the right horse(s) to bet on but who to toss.
