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Given that the vast majority of turfers (longer than 6 to 6.5 f) are simply a contest of who can run fastest from the 2nd call to the wire, WHICH crowds the field into all making their "moves" in the same section of the race, WHICH almost guarantees a situation where the TRIP trumps the pace, I have been looking at a novel idea.
I don't play turf because of the traffic jams, BUT I have discovered an interesting phenomenon that often suggests who will be MOST LIKELY out of the traffic jam and who will have to be lucky enough to get through. I am reviewing many records to see if it comes up often enough to be a worthwhile angle to consider.
I have found that OFTEN the horses with the best TURF f1's that also have good SP or LP rankings often break and gain position ahead of the field, so when the group all uncorks their final fraction runs (usually, but not always a rather sluggish 2nd fraction), these are often OUT OF TROUBLE enough to be able to move their SP or LP without those traffic jams.
At first I did not pay it much mind, but it has occurred so frequently, I think it deserves more study...
Opinions?
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"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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