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Modeling pace dynamics
Computer guys,
How do you model pace dynamics (e.g., early speed battles that set up for closers, lone speed situations, etc.) in your algorithms?
I'm using a rank-ordered logit and currently have a composite factor (linear combination) that projects probability of having the early lead (1/2 mile in sprints and 6F point in routes). Based on this, I can tell roughly where each runner will be early in the race. My problem is, how to add factors for what type of pace scenario is emerging. The model clearly shows that being up front early is on average a positive factor (no surprise here), but does this positive effect vary based on whether there is pace pressure or a speed battle? If so, how could I model this using new variables?
Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
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