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Old 03-07-2018, 11:28 AM   #22
therover
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Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 31
I would go back over the course of a month or two and look back at the winners of those races. Determine if your handicapping method is picking winners more in route races vs sprints, dirt vs turf, etc.

I would then look at how to possibly isolate one of the 3. Are there any angles you are using to handicap or strictly via a pace/speed/race set up ? I am an angle guy. I may not have a high win percentage but the average price of my winners makes up for it. There are times when my contender looks brutal but wins and pays $40-$50.

Look for positive jockey switches. Recent work outs. Trainer changes, distance changes. Anything to get an edge.

Lastly....check out the prices on those winners. Are they in a specific range. Are you hitting a lot of low odds favorites or are your winners paying $8-$12.

Betting horses in a specific PTO range is always tough. Me....I can't bet on 2-1 or less. I pass the race most times. Same on the other end...30-1 is the top end. I look for the sweet spot between 4-1 through 12-1. I have found that most of my winners that I pick using my specific angle pay win at 5-1 through 8-1. They are my prime bets. I will double up on my bet if the horses odds are in that range. Also, the method I use works about 5 times better on route races so I pretty much stick to them now.

3 contenders with an 80% win rate is great. I would try to do some additional analysis to see if there is additional data or a methodology to isolate one of them. I know that's tough work but it may be worth it. You may end up with a sweet spot play method.
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