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Old 04-04-2019, 10:19 AM   #17
Data Warbucks
Gakiss2's Avatar
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 261
Thank you for the feedback

Originally Posted by how cliche View Post
There's a few items I'll address from this thread.

Not all 2k mi+ plane shipments are equal.
West to east is easy. South to north is easy.
The east to west and north to south are tough. I like to see five weeks acclimation time for those. Might be the reason the east coast runners don't win when the cup is held at SA. It makes runners like Improbable and Omaha Beach coming up plays against on the double ship most of the time. Must verify who went west before heading east again.

Layoff runners aren't equal. You're onto something when looking for competent long break trainers. Also look for what stage of their career they're in. Improvement happens a lot from 2 to 3 and 3 to 4. Less often from 4 to 5. 5 and up it's washy.

Workout spacing is every bit as important as workout speed. A lone fast drill in a vacuum has less value than a weekly schedule of slow ones. Also short drills often mean less. Signals more often are found at 5f+.

My $0.02
Very insightful information, Thank You
I had no idea about the difference to ship one direction or the other. And I think you are talking about shipping inside the US. Any thoughts on shipping from Europe etc.?

So I am taking it that you think the success from a long layoff comes from the Trainer and not so much the horse.

I will absolutely include the age when evaluating layoff runners.

I like to think about WHY the layoff. What I understand is that a horse hits a peak, peels off a few good performances (wins??) and then has to 'rest' for 50 or so days. A long layoff probably means the horse was getting some additional re-hab such as for an injury. The only thing I know to look for in that case are recent works which are usually slow-ish so not much revealed there except, yes, they can still 'run'. I'd guess the trainer doesn't want to reveal the success or failure of the re-hab.

Very appreciative of the insight. You've given me a couple ideas to include in my fitness metric.

Care to weigh in on the value of tracking 'Furlongs per day' as a fitness measure. I thought it would be good to seek a range so I can flag underworked and overworked horses.
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
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