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Old 04-03-2019, 05:32 PM   #16
Jeff P
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Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 4,549
Originally Posted by Gakiss2 View Post
When judging if a layoff horse can score first out we look at past performance where the horse has been in a similar situation. If a horse came out swinging from a 50 day layoff a year ago but now has a different trainer, can we count on a similar performance?

In other words, is the ability to win off of a layoff have more to do with the horse or the trainer????

If someone had asked me this same question 30 years ago my answer (instantly) would have been horse.

Fast forward to today's game and my answer (sadly) has to be trainer.

If I look at data for layoff horses with the data broken out by trainer, I can't help but notice there are trainers out there who are (How am I supposed to describe this delicately?) working miracles compared to the stats of the better trainers from (say) 30 years ago.

The odd thing (to me) is that when the horses of these trainers show up to race again after extended layoffs I can't help but notice:
  • Many are carrying some serious muscle mass (that they didn't have before the layoff.)

  • Many don't have the workouts in their past performance records (in terms of fast times, distance, or spacing) that would have suggested condition or readiness to compete after an extended layoff in the game as it existed (say) 30 years ago.

My point is the game has changed. Imo, the extended layoff horse of today's game is very different than the extended layoff horse of yesteryear.

Imo, it pays to:
  • Learn to judge condition visually.

  • Familiarize yourself with trainer stats. Be aware of who excels with layoff horses. Imo, you have to at least consider the how and why. Imo, you also need to be aware of who has subpar stats with layoff horses.


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Last edited by Jeff P; 04-03-2019 at 05:34 PM.
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