Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


View Single Post
Old 03-31-2019, 10:14 PM   #8
Gakiss2
Data Warbucks
 
Gakiss2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 261
Thank you for the feedback

Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnGalt1 View Post
I try to limit my bets on horses that are in the top tiers in class and pace/speed if they are racing fit.

I can see when the horse ran, the class of races the horse ran in. and the speed it showed.

Even if workouts are shown, are some missing, miss-timed, with a light or heavy weight jockey. And of course we don't know if between workouts the horse was only hot walked or galloped every few days between official workouts.

Not knowing if a horse off a lay off is fit is my biggest challenge because of lack of knowledge of what I don't see. or know.

I will lose races to horse with class and speed off a two month layoff with on or two 3f workouts thinking the trainer is giving the horse a "training" race for the next race.

##

I have the same frustration. Also, among the horses that seem to be contenders, I think if I can detect a horse that has gotten the short straw w.r.t fitness either because the trainer was not good or too busy with Sea Biscuit, then I can start trimming down my pool of real contenders. This is really valuable for Horizontal (P3,P5) bets as I am sure you know.


##

Even trainers like Jason Servis who's lay off horses always lack workouts where I know his horses are as fit as any in the race, I still don't know for sure IF they are fit if I saw more info.

&&&&&&&&&&&&&

Example race-- Oaklawn Thursday 9/28 Race 5
6f $10 claiming nw3
Serengeti (6-1 ML) last raced 12/18/18
workouts 3/22 3f 2/26 4f(a month ago)
Trainer Chris Hartman 90+days away 74 races 16% Very acceptable. This trainer usually shows work on these typed=s of layoff horses--why not this one?

The ten races showed one stake Best Pal 8/12/17, one stake, turf sprint, 5 allowance races, on $50k claiming race and maiden special race.

I ignored it since I didn't know if it was in racing fitness, though it was a standout with it's class and speed from it's past races, and that's what got it home wire-to-wire @ 2-1 if I remember.
Even if I did expect it to tire in the lane.

Some of you, and I know some at my track, that ignore workouts, assuming that all horses are fit or it wouldn't be entered, would've had that horse.

##

That doesn't make sense to me because I see race after race where it is clear the horse is there primarily as a part of the trainers plan to get it ready for another race in the near future. You see horses that haven't run less then 7 1/2 F in the last 8 months suddenly in a 5 1/2 F race. Sometimes you can catch one of these rare sprints in their PPs from 8 months ago and they did miserably.

##

I couldn't trust it, because I've seen too many slower and less classy horse beat horse who tired in the stretch.



&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

In the olden days this was a non concern for me. Horses ran every 2-4 weeks, mostly because there were more claiming races, and horses were more fit and we could follow their form cycles.

Very few horses today race often enough to HAVE form cycles.

I realize we have to speculate when we use our class, speed and form judgements, the speed number was set in the previous races, and we have to project if the class, speed and form from the past will defeat the numbers from the competition today.

##

You mention class. If a horse is underclass but shows very high early pace numbers then, naturally, you'd worry he would run in front of the other classier horses possibly making it to the beginning of the last turn before being nothing more than in the way. If you had good confidence the horse was very very fit then you might have found a good price.

Sure I'm not telling you anything you don't already know.

##
If a race is filled with horses with recent races, fitness is not the question but by where are the horses in their cycles?

I still hate guessing if my horse off a layoff is fit.

##
Hoping I can make some progress on this subject. I'll share what I find.
__________________
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
Gakiss2 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
 
» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Do you use energy percentages?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:32 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2022 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.