Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I have invented a way through which I can manipulate the adjusted internal fractions of the past-performances in a manner which gives me a "performance rating" for each race of the horses in the field. This "performance rating" shows me how much exertion the horses have exhibited in their prior races...and with this rating I can compare the speed horses to the closers of the race without harboring any undue "biases" for or against any particular running style. I calculate these ratings for the recent "representative races" of the horses in the field...making sure that I don't overlook whatever class or distance/footing changes there might be in the race. The higher the performance rating...the more impressive I consider the horse's performance to be.
Next...I make sure that the horse in question is capable of repeating its impressive races in a manner which favorably compares to the betting support that the horse is receiving today. For example...if a horse's PPs show me that the horse can't run two outstanding races back-to-back...then I'll overlook this horse today...no matter how impressive the horse's last race may seem. The key handicapping question that I seek to answer isn't "Which horse has run the fastest prior race?", but rather..."Which horse is capable of running best TODAY?" These two seemingly similar questions often lead to entirely different answers.
With my well-interpreted "performance ratings" in hand, I now compare the horses to their corresponding odds, and arrive at my final betting conclusions...the explanation of which would make this post a lot less "digestible".  |
Are you actually using adjusted time fractions or a third party's internal fraction rating for the actual time(after your adjustments)? Hope that makes sense.
