Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Essentially, that Las Vegas sports books are in the midst of huge changes in their business model, that those changes are reflective of the fact that certain types of bets attract a ton of "dumb money", and that the traditional 11-10 sports bet is going to become as rare as the 3 to 2 blackjack table with respect to the biggest football games.
|
If true, then won't all the sportsbooks have to do this in tandem, to avoid being priced out? It wasn't that long ago a serious sports bettor would rely on a team of runners to place bets around town to get the best prices on games. If a book offers -120 and -105 on a game, I'd certainly be looking elsewhere to place my bet.
This thread is a reminder of how much trouble the gambling industry is in, which IMHO is a reflection of the economy. 30 years ago, over 40,000 foals were born each year - now it's estimated to be less than 20,000 and a 53 year low for 2018.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com...r-low-in-2018/
The decline of horse racing shows no signs of slowing down. Other than occasional temporary pop in handle, the numbers continue to slide, and it's no surprise to see it happen in other forms of gambling and sports as well.
A 15% takeout on a pick 5 is not going to save the industry.
As the boomers retire and retire and start counting their pennies, their gambling handle is not going to be replaced by millenials living in their parent's basement. Sports and online gambling may provide some relief for the early adopting states, assuming the Supreme Court allows expansion, but the long-term trend is still down. I would be shocked if the sports operators repeated the mistakes of the casinos, and piggy-backed again via the racetracks.
In North America, the intermediation (fingers in the pie) has been worse than many venues overseas, and I don't see any signs of states, the Feds, the horsemen or the track owners in providing the players (or owners) any breaks. The death spiral is well underway, and the parasites are killing the host. Speculating about a 5% takeout is a nice distraction, but will not happen any time soon. 30 years from now will the crop be 10,000 and takeout averaging 30%?
There's an irony about the HBPA "funding" a study about the effects of horse racing - it's another finger in the pie. The money spent ultimately came from the players and owners, and I for one am highly skeptical that the ROI on it will be positive.
