Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
At one point, Dossage was very strong in the Derby. Back when only a few horses met the requirements. Nowadays, most horse meet it and it no longer has the impact.
More and more horses are coming to the Derby with less and less foundation. It is harder for an unraced 2yo to beat "seasoned three year olds, but as we get less and less experience into our 3yos, the curse will disappear. It exists due to sound reasoning, not magic.
Only a few years ago, we were concerned with a 5 week layoff going into the Derby. Today, 5 weeks is a quick turnaround.
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All of this is correct.
Basically all of the statistical "angles" on Derby starters are based on small samples of what is a changing race. Reliance on ANY of them is probably negative expected value over time.
Here's my brilliant idea on the Derby. Handicap it as any other horse race. Figure out who is coming in based on the best form, who will be favored by the pace scenario, who has been well prepared, who has a top trainer and/or jockey, etc.
The curse of Apollo will be broken, it almost got broken by Curlin a few years ago, and there's nothing special about a 3 year old stakes in May that requires that a horse race before an arbitrary date 4 months and a few days earlier.
