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[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

PA, you have read posts by Todd and AE. I am sure most of the people that can actually order an investigation, are in the same boat. They believe that past posting is not possible, and they believe that the accuracy of the late money is a reflection of the talents of the Whales and nothing else. If that is your belief why would you wast the time and spend the money to investigate something you are 100% sure is not happening. In fact they were actually reading these threads they would likely be laughing out loud about how stupid they think some us are. Couple that with the fact that this type of cheating doesn't affect racing's bottom line one dollar and I really do not see a lot of motivation for anyone in the racing industry to go out of their way to really investigate if this type of cheating is going on. You can argue that any kind of cheating will cause a financial strain to their core customer base, but so do rebates, crw and whales in general and racing certainly has no problem with them.

So for this reason I am not persuaded at all by your argument. However, as I think about it, the argument I would make for no past posting is that there are reportedly 25 or more groups out there betting huge amounts of money and using rebates to profit. If a couple of groups were past posting and the rest weren't, it seems to me over time that the groups that were past posting would swallow up all the profits and the other groups would have a hard time surviving even with their skill set and rebates. For this reason I will side with past posting being more of a minor issue or non issue than a major issue.

So if past posting is not the problem, why the large odds swings? Why are horses that the rest of the public is dismissing at 9-1, being pounded down to 9/2 by the whales (I had a horse I bet at Gulfstream at 54-1 as they loaded the gate and won at 28-1 I believe another horse-Lambo mentioned in one of these threads I bet was 17-1 loading and won at 8-1(after the race I checked and he was 8.3-1 in the double) The public is not going to be that far off. It has to be pool manipulation. Bet some of their money early on other horse(s), make the public think certain horse(s) are more dead on the board than they actually are or have less chance than they actually do. By the same token they make some horses look more live than they are and have a better chance than they do. A horse that they like that they feel is off the radar of the public they can make look like a hopeless longshot or just make look like a non factor and then on the final flash, bang. In the final seconds they make their balancing wagers, cancellations and they get exactly what they want while the public is confusing itself with why is horse x so live and why horse Y so dead and ignoring horse z because he is 50-1. Meanwhile that was just a mirage to throw off the public.

Obviously if there are 25 or 30 groups or even more groups out there they probably are not all using this approach, but the more I think about it, the more I realize that some of the groups are. At this point I personally am concluding that pool manipulation on top of the the rest of the things I have mentioned is the explanation for these huge odds swings.

Now this makes sense. Countless times on betfair, a 8-1 on betfair is 3,4 - 1 on the tote. It is a sure loser. I am betting this type on betfair. The early tote have it as 25% winner and in reality it’s 7%. Pool manipulation is a huge problem at smaller tracks. I totally ignore the tote prices. I don’t care what their odds are.

Allan