Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
I am not really clear what you are looking for when you say you want a way for no nothings to churn money and think they have a shot, yet takeout isn't in that discussion. Are you trying to create brainless bets just to bring fresh money into the pools? Or am I misinterpreting what you are saying.
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I believe I said -115 correct? That means a 6.5% rake on a match up bet. Can you go any higher than 6.5? Probably not much on a coin flip bet so of course the amount of vig matters. A 15% takeout on a pick five however is not the reason why people lose on the pick five, you do know that right? In fact with zero takeout many/most in fact nearly ALL people will lose anyway. The good players will win more. Look at any pick six with carryover. Are all of those bets automatically plus EV because the carryover has neutralized the takeout? Of course not. Takeout definitely should be optimized to generate the most action in every pool, I'm 100% on board with that as long as the track thrives it's all good. Where we differ is you seem to think that is the answer in a nutshell. I think the general public when they have given the game a try were mechanically separated from their money so quickly the takeout had very little to do with it. Once you give them some sort of assistance, give them some sort of a safety net with higher win rates that's when the takeout on the grind will become more important. Let's not get overly concerned about folks being able to grow crops on the moon when their rocketship can't even get off the ground -- not to mention only one in a thousand is going to have the stomach for whatever grows up there anyway.
