Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
......The challenge is finding those overlays.
Dave claims that you can’t do it anymore with the tote, not even using DD probables, which is mind-boggling.......
Disagree with this, although it hasn't been as productive as in the past. Some tracks better than others.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
Walk me through how you would use the DD probables to find overlays. Are you using the probables just to find where the whale money is being bet?
In looking at the DD pools at Santa Anita yesterday, only one of them had significant play, the last one with $107,936 in the pool. The second largest was the first one with only $32,307 in the pool. The other 6 ranged from $11,020 to $28,038. It seems unlikely that there was/is major play in the DD pools by the whales.
|
How would one use DD's probables and will pays to find live horses? First thing I do is rank the ML with the lowest ML as Rank #1, and so on. I also look for a track where the ML is consistent. But your own ML or odds line would work as well.
Below is an actual example of using the DD's to find plays from Parx
Example #34-3rd race-Parx-4/16/18-1M70Yds Md 10K claimer. It's #34 with #1 in my notebook starting 9/9/17. I restarted recording them again after retiring, and I don't record them all or play every day, sometimes miss a week occasionally as I still consult part time. So here's my method on using double probables and will pays to find plays.
I first started using this at PENN, but quit playing there for various reasons. I've used this at literally every track in the country, but prefer the small to medium tracks.
Favorite tracks where it works well(for me): Parx, Laurel, GP, TB, Bel.
No. - - -ML - - -EM$ - - -- - - - - - -DD$ - - - - -Prop. Odds - - -Ranks- - - - -
1- - - -20-1 - -17-1 - - - - - - - - $209 - - - - - -10.4 - - - - - - 7 -10 =
2- - - -10-1 - - 6-1 - - - - - - - - -65.60- - - - - -6.56 - - - - - -5 - 3 = +2
3 - - - -3-1 - - -7-2 - - - - - - - - -23.60- - - - - -7.8 - - - - - - -2 - 5 =
4 - - - 20-1- - *9-1 (55% drop)- 70.20- - - - - -3.5 - - - - - - -8 - 1 = +7*
5 - - - 20-1- - -14-1- - - - - - - - 192.00- - - - - -9.6 - - - - - --9 - 8 =
6 - - - 9-2 - - *2-1 - (55% dr)- - 34.00- - - - - -7.5 - - - - - --3 - 4 =
7 - - -6-1 - - - 7-1 - - - - - - - - - 31.60- - - - - -5.2 - - - - - - -4 - 2 = +2
8 - - -15-1 - - 10-1- (33% dr)- - 132.80- - - - --8.8 - - - - - - -6 - 7 =
9 - - -20-1- - -25-1- - - - - - - - 165.00 - - - - - 8.25 - - - - - - 10-6= +4*
10- - -2-1 - - - 8-1 - - - - - - - -- -20.20 - - - - -10.1 - - - - - - -1-9 =
Ranks explanation is 1st number is ML subtracting the rank of the lowest prop. DD odds ranks. So in the above example,
Discomania was a standout in that he was the lowest prop. odds ranks and also a +7 in rankings from his ML rank. To be fair, I borrowed the Proportionate odds idea from the late Al Illich but it has been modified with the rankings by me. He only proposed using actual 2nd half payoffs while I discovered many years ago that it works as well with DD probables and exacta pools "almost" as well. in the above example I dutched the
and
to win, and used them in exactas with the
and
The
won and paid $26.20-11.00-6.40. The
ran 2nd so I missed the exacta. In case you think the ML was bad on the
in his previous two races he ran 5th-18 BL's and 5th -12.5 BL's at 15K Md.
Does this method work all the time? Absolutely not, selective plays are key. I also showed the Early money which I use as a confirming factor, if the play has a 50% drop from his ML. Not all DD plays show EM$. Why do I spell out this method in detail? Because I know many on here will doubt it works, or accuse me of redboarding. I will gladly provide the link of several of these picks called live here on PA. One day it hit four double digit winners in a row, right here. I used it to pick Mo Don't Know in a Mahoning Stakes live on Greg's thread, although he won thru a DQ and paid 13.80. Like handicapping, it can run hot and cold, I often suppliment my handicapping with this method.
