Fascinating thread. I just wanted to add my two cents, which, I’ll admit, aren’t even worth that much .
Any profitable method involves betting overlays, I don’t think anyone here can deny that. You can’t bet on underlays over a period of time and break even, let alone come out ahead.
The challenge is finding those overlays. Dave claims that you can’t do it anymore with the tote, not even using DD probables, which is mind-boggling. So, YOU have to come up with two numbers for each horse, 1) the predictive betting odds (what the ML makers have been trying to do since time immemorial, but can’t). 2) the actual mathematical odds (a number which I believe does exist, but a lot of people don’t). We have to do this without inside information, so I’m assuming that Dave uses the same crap we all use, unless he pays rail-birds, etc. Dave’s method, like any other method, just boils down to being smarter than the whales who have tons of information and data analysts on their payroll doing the same thing.
I’m still confused about how Dave determines which races he bets and which he passes, but Dave has explained that many times on this board so I’m not going to suggest he do it again.
