Quote:
Originally Posted by ubercapper
I totally agree as they come up going forward each and every one of these horses should be given a long look when handicapping.
Looking at his five year numbers off the claim I come up with 34% (65 for 189) with an ROI of $1.90 per $2. I still don't think 189 is a big enough number for statistical significance but I would say holding above 33% over five years suggests his ability to identify horses he can move up is pretty strong.
Statistically, I'll leave it to others to determine whether it's an outlier compared to the mean and no way associated with chance.
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I think there is a place for long term trends and short term trends. But for the most part, catching on to the short term ones before the public does is the best way to make it profitable. By the time sample size is big enough, profits shrink or disappear.
As an example, there was a time when Jorge Navarro had similar stats as Joseph does currently. But now, past year first after he claims...
17 for 83, 20%, $1.11 ROI per $2. People overdid it, he doesn't win as much, but he is still bet like he does.
