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I think if you put it into the category of if I handicapped this race for 4 hours does the winner:
1)make a lot of sense
2)makes a little sense
3)could have kept on handicapping and looking at results and replays and never could have come to the conclusion that the winner made much sense and the marginal sense it did make would not be worth betting any sizable chunk of bank on.
Good enough way to gauge races and formfulness.
Fast horses win races and just about any of the top 92 percentile of speed figures win 80% or more of the races. I find this true on both dirt and turf. I trust this reality to the point I rarely track it long term anymore. To me I think it proves formfulness of races.
In the makes a little sense category marginal speed contenders that can improve via favorable race shape, 2nd start, new pace top, shipping to lesser circuit, dropping in class, natural improvement to lifetime norms 2nd, 3rd 4th etc off layoff, decent form horses with pedigrees to improve doing something bloodline oriented like routes and turf, FTS who make sense based on pedigree against a mediocre looking field. I'm sure we all have an array of improving factors and could make this list bigtime sizable.
Depending on the track, surface, or day or week I find the chaos/makes little sense number to be anywhere from 12-25%.
Last edited by CincyHorseplayer; 04-11-2016 at 04:15 PM.
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