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Originally Posted by Nitro
I’ve never heard of “races running to form”. I have heard of horses running to form though. From a handicapping perspective that simply means that in today’s race a horse may have run similar to its previous races with similar conditions (Class, distance, etc.) in terms of its relative position in the pace scenario and finish position. Unfortunately, this comparison can only be made after the race is over. In terms of how it ran and finishes, might also confirm the condition the horse was in, but again only after the fact.
From a pre-race betting perspective these type of evaluations are totally ineffective. This is because they would be based on subjective assumptions that the horse is in fact in condition and actually entered in the race with intentions of winning it. Outsiders relying on past performance data have absolutely no way of reaching such an objective conclusion and as a result any opinion they may have becomes pure speculation.
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Nitro, do you follow NYRA racing ? If yes, please tell me your thoughts on sundays 1st race. To me , I thought Id walk in and see my single and top pick , the 5 at 2/5. He was dead on the board (NY dead) as he was 7/5 ML AND there was a a scratch in the field. The 1 was crushed for no legitimate reason. Not just in the win pool but in the DDS . Nevertheless, I singled the 5 in the pick 5 , ex and sups. I didn't see any large moves on the 5 in any Exactas or DDs. The horse finally and slowly dropped down to almost his ML price. He won well. I am not red boarding some 8/5 in a 5 horse field. Just wondering if you can speak to how the board speaks to you as you imply. The 5 was the most in form horse in the race and the lone tactical horse. We all know horses can go out of form in 1/2 a second and we all know a lone speed can lose their advantage in 1/4 of a stride. Id appreciate your insights as to how the board and money might've pointed you to the 5 as in this case the board said the 5 is not where juice is flowing to.
Thanks
