Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperson
It came in 5,6,7,8 Again speed fig being wrong or in error had nothing to do with the winner. All 4 horse had shown enough speed to win this race. My analysis(and Andy's)over estimated the negative effect on the class jump from clm10k to clm35k and under estimated the positive effect of the 8 lb drop in weight. I used to be strictly a speed handicapper,but now I have changed. Now I look to see if a horse has shown in the past 4 races that he has enough speed to win this race at this distance and start my handicapping from there. These 4 horses had shown speed fig faster than the race par of 82. I will continue to degrade a horse like the 5 for making that jump in class. In long run I think that is right.
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I agree with your analysis of this race, the one thing i might point out is that under
claiming conditions, after recording a speed figure that qualifies for winning, the class rise should be looked at as a positive. If the horse just runs a good race with the same or slightly lower speed figure at the higher class then it can be viewed as a negative in its next start. If the class move is to a
non-claiming race, then it should be viewed as a negative unless the speed figure earned is the highest in the field by more than 6 points.
