[quote=Denny;2313785]
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Sample sizes are too small. Most likely the string of favorites is random variance.
Do you realize what the mathematical odds are of 6 favorites in a row?
In a twenty horse field?
Even if we take the old standard of favorites winning 1 in 3 (which is extremely generous for that size field) - the odds would be something like -
1/(3x3x3x3x3x3) {1 divided by 3 to the 6th)
1 / 729 = 0.00137
0.137 %
That's some "random variance" you have there!
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Really? I've seen 6 favorites win in the pick 6 sequence any number of times.
And I have seen pocket aces at a poker table win 6 times in a row- it is the favorite.
I am convinced that there's just a fundamental divide between the numerate and the innumerate in life. 6 favorites in a row isn't even nearly as rare as some of the results random variance can produce. Lukas had 6 straight triple crown race wins and 7 of 8 with 5 different horses, only 2 of them favorites. Calvin Borel rode 3 Derby winners in 4 years.
And right now, we could find a roulette wheel in Vegas which hit the same number 5 times in the last 12 spins. The wheels have displays that show that.
