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Originally Posted by bobphilo
This would be relevant if AP was running against previous Preakness winners. However he is running against a crop that the has consistently outperformed. Very different story.
While his Beyers compared to previous years were not exceptional, according to Thorograph, the most accurate speed figures, his Derby was one of the best on in history because they count the very important factor of ground loss.
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You do realize that all of those horses that won the first two legs and lost the Belmont had consistently outperformed the current crop. I guess you bet all of those horses.
The speed figures and the horse's individual closing fractions do matter from a historical perspective. It gives us a perspective of how dominant the horse is at these longer distances. There's no question that this is a fast horse, and a top colt. But is he a great horse? Is he a lock in the Belmont? Or is he another California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, etc., real nice colts that were not great horses.
