Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
One system I tested was profitable for 2015 and 2016 but fell apart in 2017.
I have another one that was hovering around break even for the latter part of 2014 (when testing began), all of 2015, all of 2016, and all 2017, but is getting killed so far in 2018. That's for about 500-600 horses per year that are a mix of favorites, 2nd choices, and 3rd choices, with an occasional longshot mixed in. I have no idea how 2018 will end up, but I think to really be certain you need some serious samples sizes.
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I've been struggling with this as of late. I've attached some charts of cumulative profit for a model I backtested. First image is a cumulative profit chart that I was proud of, which covers ~3000 races from 20160201 to 20170501. Utilized kelly betting with a fixed $1k bankroll at the start of each race (no reinvestment). Second attachment is the same model from 20170901 to 20180301. I agree that 500 bets may not be enough...
I think it comes down to having a good way to evaluate how much better our predictions are doing than the publics. No strategy is going to last forever, as we're only winning when we're doing something that no one else is. It has taught me that having a way to i.d when to turn a strategy off is as valuable as i.d'ing the strategy in the first place.
