Quote:
Originally Posted by steveb
why?
if your probs are as correct as possible, and your 15/1 chances win at that percentage(or greater if you set your probs to less than 1) then there can be but one result.
if not, then that insinuates that your 15/1 horses should have been given longer prices.
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and i should have added.....if they win at a greater price than your assessed price.
it's no good if your 15/1 chances are winning at that rate, but at lesser average odds.
that would be negative expectation, but it's not what you stated.
25/1 about 15/1 pops is a GREAT bet, provided your probs are reasonable.
