Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I think I have a very clear grasp of the point.
I've got zero interest in predicting who the top 3 public choices are. IMHO, that is a waste of time because - as you (basically) said - it's a moving target.
That's why I concentrate on what the odds SHOULD be.
If anything, the difference between what they should be and what they ARE would indicate the smart money.
But, still the same problem: How to accomplish that when that info isn't available until after the race is over.
For the record, our SHOULD BE predictions are "good." About 84% of the time the top horse goes off as either fav or 2nd choice.
Of course, a small percentage of the time a horse predicted to be under 3/1 goes off at 12/1 or above. Those horses are worthy of automatic bets.
|
Okay, my bad. I thought this thread was about how Benter's model of betting overlays was a loser until he incorporated the tote board into his model. On my original post, I said maybe there's a way to predict the tote before post time. It sounds like your method arrives at that 84% of the time(fav or 2nd choice). Then congratulations, you've cracked the code.
