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No One Way
Turfspec
If I understand you correctly, I believe that you’ve oversimplified the word “method”. (Or maybe its just semantics?) Anyway, as I see it, any worthwhile method of traditional handicapping incorporates any number of factors (variables) (not methods) that include things like the number of days since last raced, recent speed and pace figures for similar distance as today’s race, class change as compared to where the horse has won (or performed well) previously, how the horse likes to win in terms of its preferred pace scenario, early speed, weight changes, jockey changes, trainer moves, current track conditions and bias, money won profile, etc., etc. The weight of each of these variables (as part of the overall method) can then be applied to each of the various types of races. Some factors will carry more weight then others based on the actual results of having handicapped many races. By applying a method that uses a specific combination of these weighted factors to a given race and comparing the predicted outcome with the actual results, these variables will change in dimension. Some might even be deleted and others added. The method, as I see it determines which combination should be used for a given race scenario. But still no one method will work in every case.
In my mind, the handicapping method just provides an overall profile of each entry and assumes that each one is “trying”. These profiles then must be applied to see how each animal fits the conditions of the actual race at hand. They should be further scrutinized by the betting activity before the race.
The reason that any decent handicapper WILL know why a horse wins (or loses) a race is simply by comparing “how he presumed the race to play out” versus “how it actually played out”. Keep in mind its racing and yes, they’re all running and rarely do they fall down. Every horse entered will be at a specific position on the racetrack during the course of the race. When the comparisons are complete for a number of similar type races, the handicapper is then and only then able to see what variables might have had the most impact. Including those that existed during the running of the race; particularly pace, and the track condition. Many comparisons become throw outs because sometimes the contenders in the race fail to run true to form. The handicapper has to decide whether it was the race itself and its conditions that caused this failure, was it just a poor performance due to lack of conditioning or was it something else that only the connections were aware of.
Using any single variable (or factor) to declare a winner completely ignores all the others that are part of the methods used. It also disregards the actual running of the race, as well as the intentions of the connections. 46zilzal's comment that there is “No One Way” of determining the outcome of a race is I feel a very true and accurate statement.
Best of Luck!
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