Quote:
Originally Posted by dnlgfnk
I wouldn't touch baseball...
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-baseb...-random-sport/
One needs roughly 500 PA's for home runs to even be static, i.e., develop a probability. Incidentally, randomness doesn't exist in the macro-material world. It is a description of human ignorance (we don't know the physical facts why this or that occurred).
I remember a post of mine from sources citing basketball as most predictive.
Too many of these outcomes on a daily basis... https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...02205250.shtml
Will Trea Turner get doubled up (Wash .77 per game)? Freeman take an 0-fer? vs. Fedde?(+5 ERA, !.6+ WHIP)
Even Benter's naivete let him down in baseball, at last report.
I'll stick with the running horse, where I often can know much of why a horse performed the way he did by evaluating the pace, position on track, etc.
Even if I want to pour through Statcast data on barrels in baseball, how do I apply it to Freeman's 4 PA's today? |
You're ignoring short-term trends, which I've seen people do in racing too. Or at least I used to, right here on this site. At one time it was "well yeah that trainer has won 3 of their last 4 claims, but is it statistically profitable over 5 years blah blah". While I cashed tickets. Now of course it has gone the other way where all of the value has been sucked out. But the minute you say something about 500 plate appearances, you show that while you might do well in season-long fantasy baseball, you don't understand baseball betting.
