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I was just checking if a certain exacta strategy had any value.
the first thing I did was to calculate the exacta's fair value and compare it to the actual pay out.
fair value
two horses A and B
(1/(odds +1) of A)/booking % = say ,aodds
(1/(odds+1) of B)/say booking % = say, bodds
then aodds x (bodds/(1-aodds)) = exacta probability
1/exacta probability = fair $1 exacta payout.
note, booking % = the sum of 1/(odds +1) for all horse in the race.
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Last edited by formula_2002; 02-23-2018 at 08:01 AM.
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