Judging Horse Fitness by race and workout data
I am trying to find a way to score a horse's fitness level based on the pattern of Races and workouts it has had in the past 90 days. I am interested in hearing your thoughts on the matter. I have basically been going by bits of wisdom and advice I've heard from various sources and would like to hear more points of view.
I start with a table showing whether an activity is a Race or a Workout, the distance, and the days since the race I am looking at. I also make a chart so I can get a visual sense of the pattern of 'work'. It is attached. I could easily add speed of the race or work and am open to ways to use that additional data in this endeavor.
90 days: Seems history beyond that wouldn't matter much to today's race. On the other hand maybe 60 or even 40 days makes more sense.
I've always heard that a race less than 9 days back is bad, the horse can't recover that fast.
And the above does not apply to a work out? In fact we often see well meant horses with a workout just a few days back.
It is necessary to 'maintain' a horses' fitness. its not enough to have raced them or worked them recently, you also need to work them with one or the other every = fill in the blank= days. I've been going by every 15 days but am not put off much if there is a regular pattern closer to every 30 days. And how much of a factor is this pattern?
I am also interested in the relative general worth of a race vs. a work out in the above calculations.
I've heard a horses last race either improved the horse's fitness or degraded it. Great advice only I don't have much to go on as to which it is. I would imagine a contentious pace battle might be the latter while a boring merry-go-round trip near the back of the field still has some benefit.
I am trying to eventually get to a useful algorithm.
All input / advice welcome.
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