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Old 09-07-2020, 09:41 PM   #24
classhandicapper
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
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As I've said, there are too many moving parts right now to say almost anything with certainty.

1. We have significant unemployment

2. Many tracks were closed, then slowly reopened.

3. There were no other sports/casinos to gamble on for awhile, then they slowly reopened.

4. There's no live attendance at most tracks

5. There was pent up demand when racing returned that slowly diminished as bankrolls were used up

6. The one time stimulus checks put extra money in the hands of gamblers temporarily

No one can control for all those offsetting negatives, positives, and moving parts.

There are a few things we know for certain from the data that O'Crunk has been posting and from the math of the handle.

1. Fewer tracks being opened at the same time lead to significantly increased handle for the ones that were opened first.

2. As more tracks opened, money started shifting towards higher quality, better racing, and larger fields

3. The more your overall handle and profit margin is dependent on fans being at the track, the harder you were hit by not having fans both in terms of volume of betting and profit margin on bets at other ADWs.

4. Related to #2, IMO you can't compare handle at AQU, BEL, and SAR even if you control for field size and other factors because the quality of the racing at the 3 tracks is completely different. The "brand value" of each is in part related to the quality of the racing that's typical at that track (Grade 1 stakes, mid week stakes, super stakes cards, turf racing vs, cheap maidens, cheap NW2L claimers, bad statebreds etc..). If you shifted the quality of any of them up or down the handle would change to some extent right away and then more so over time.

At this point we should just be happy racing is back and Saratoga had good weather for its turf racing compared to many other years.
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Last edited by classhandicapper; 09-07-2020 at 09:56 PM.
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