Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Based on the models I use, I predict that by January 11, 2017 the S&P will rise to between $2350 to $2457.
That is a 10 to 15 percent gain.
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By January 11, 2017 the S&P had hit 2275 -- short of my target of 2350 on the low side and 2457 on the high side.
Now it is May 14, 2017 and the S&P closed at 2,390.90 on Friday, May 12.
My timing was off, but I had the direction right and the S&P has exceeded the low end of my prediction by 40 points.
The S&P actually hit my prediction of 2351 on February 17 -- about 5 weeks later than I predicted.
Overall, not too bad.
I'm still long on stocks, but remember the saying, "Sell in May and go away."
It's hard to say how much more this market can run to the upside. There has not been much volatility. In fact, the VIX hit its 4th lowest mark ever last week. The lowest was back in 1993. The other lows were in July 2005 and late November '06 and again in January '07. The latter two occurred close together, so I would consider January a continuation of November.
We know what happened during 2007-2009. Major recession.
Maybe this time will be different?
