Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I think we all agree the main problem is the late odds changes.
It's going to be difficult for any bookmaker to set prices that are better for us than the current system. No matter how sharp, they are basically just another set of handicappers working with imperfect knowledge and incomplete/sometimes inaccurate information. If anything the prices will be worse or they'll cut off the winners.
IMO, the solution is exchange wagering. Not that we'll get consistently better prices, but at least when you choose to make a bet at a certain price it's locked in (on either side of the bet).
I've said this before, but my experience betting on an exchange was excellent. I'm not sure why it hasn't caught on in experiments here.
How to make the model work for the tracks also is a problem for the industry to figure out (which gives me little hope given the competence displayed), but imo that's the best solution.
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Exchange Wagering WAS supported by players when it was available.
As an FYI, for the longest time, after exchange wagering was offered in Australia, total thoroughbred handle saw year over year growth - not just on the exchange - but on the Tab (parimutuel wagering) as well.
It never caught on in here in the US because Track Management and Horsemen made a concerted effort to deny major track signals to exchange platforms.
In 2011, after TVG/BetFair had successfully lobbied the California Legislature and Governor's Office to add language to SB1072 authorizing exchange wagering, I showed up at a public CHRB Meeting to voice support for one of the agenda items:
Exchange Wagering.
I recall being one of only 2 or 3 people in the room (among a hundred or so) in favor of Exchange Wagering.
I recall Track Management and Horsemen sending a seemingly endless parade of speakers to the podium not just opposed to exchange wagering but who outright vilified it.
It didn't take me long to realize they were never going to allow exchange wagering here in the US - unless they had their own exchange platform.
There was even a speaker from CDI (who other than Twinspires) doesn't have a presence in California - who took the podium and mentioned CDI had been working on an exchange platform.
Imo, a look at the track owned vs. non-track owned ADW platforms back then told me tracks weren't about to develop their own ready for prime time exchange platform any time soon.
Almost all of the innovation in the ADW world (rebates, handicapping contests, text file upload, intuitive interfaces for rapid ticket construction, downloadable wager history detail to .csv file, etc.) was being made by the non-track owned entities such as Premier Turf Club, AmWager, etc.
On top of that Betfair had at least a decade head start on the tracks when it came to an exchange wagering platform.
I'd still love to be proven wrong.
But fast forward to present day, and I've seen nothing to change my mind.
Exchange wagering on major track signals isn't going to happen here in the US any time soon.
-jp
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