Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
I'm sure this has been discussed on another thread so I apologize if it's already out there. I'm wondering what this group thinks about what is happening in the betting pools now. I've been following this game since the mid '80's and I don't remember such large odds swings at the last minute and, more importantly, on such a high percentage of winners (or those that narrowly miss).
When I've read or heard others discuss this, it's often stated that it is "Computer Batch Bettors" that are betting all of their bets at the last minute using some algorithm. I'm sure this is true but what is not being discussed is how the massive odds swings so often accurate.
This phenomenon is the one thing that could push me out of the game. I've tolerated a myriad of irritants to remain a loyal follower but not sure I can withstand this. I enjoy the handicapping process but am starting to feel like the action on the board trumps handicapping.
I know NYRA stopped the last second win pool batch betting (I believe at 2MN to post) but that feels more like a perception correction. In other words, won't the batch bettors just focus on the blind pools more?
Finally, I also read recently that Stronach and Churchill Downs have two of the big CAW teams. Unless I'm missing something, isn't that a serious conflict of interest? Couldn't it be extrapolated that those with the information on blind pools could gather knowledge about inefficiencies and bet accordingly? Something similar to what the DFS issue was with insider knowledge of what combinations of players were taken.
Sorry for the long post. I really would like any opinions on this.
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The odds swings are "so accurate" precisely because they are being applied by computers (which, I assure you, are way better at anticipating various potential outcomes of a horse race than were your buddies sitting around OTB in 1988).
You basically know in advance where they money is going, and these days even the computers shopping for, say, 4-to-1, have to anticipate how much action
other computers will apply just before the bell in order to determine whether they might still get their 4-to-1 target price.
And there are no 'blind pools' in that sense. The only 'blind' elements in those pools are those who were seated around your local OTB in 1988 (and their brethren {or they themselves} today).
The answer that
solves all of this, still remains putting the public on the live horses to begin with. The computer pounds the 9-to-1 shot down to 4-to-1
because it is supposed to be 3-to-1 based on its true chances of winning. If you have the horse at 5-to-2 already, the computer isn't going to be interested, and if it is, your OTB pals from 1988 won't be able to see the price drop from $7.80 to $7.20 on the nose.
Far too many people have been for so long part of the problem, that they cannot recognize the solution right in front of their eyes.
