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Old 04-29-2021, 10:57 AM   #39
f2tornado
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by Julz View Post
What I still don’t understand are two examples: HRC and RYW. In the case of HRC: he stretched out to a 1 3/16, ran fast fractions in doing so, wired the field and looked like he had something left. How could his numbers remain the same, yet run almost the derby distance fairly fast in wire to wire fashion and it not move the needle on the TG figure?

In the case of RYW, his numbers are the best of all, ran really fast fractions and maintained them well, yet he doesn’t seem to have a high TG number. All the other figure say he was the fastest. This is just out of curiosity and in no way I’m making a case for them (even though I do like them both). My main plays right now are Known Agenda and Highly Motivated but the two noted above I’ll obviously be using as well underneath.
The Louisiana Derby splits were not particularly fast. In fact, they were faster for the BC Juvenile at Keeneland and RB Lewis at SA. Add in what seemed like a souped-up track at FG and it's possible some figures deceive. As for the TG figures, HRC was able to take the shortest way around the track. A horse winning while running outside has to cover more ground and therefore would yield a stronger figure. It's the reason you see staggered lanes in Olympic track. RYW also took the shortest path and while he looked great, he was no Justify out there. His TimeformUS and BSF are best however TG and Equibase provide some caution. He really does have to improve to win here. Certainly possible.
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