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Old 04-28-2021, 06:21 PM   #35
f2tornado
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
Quote:
Originally Posted by Julz View Post
...however you did mention the TG numbers and a top 6. I know a little about them but not much. I thought that they provide a forward movement and a regression pattern but it’s somewhat subjective and I didn’t think they provided their top horses. I’d you have time...maybe you can provide clarification for me
A TG figure is a combination of race time, beaten lengths, ground lost/saved. weight, and perhaps even the wind. Then, like the other figure makers, adjust for the variant. The forward movement/regression you speak of is merely a pattern the sheets players look for (e.g. did the horse double top?). A horse like Hot Rod Charlie has basically ran the same TG figure since the Breeder's Cup. I'm not banking on him suddenly upping his game this weekend. Hidden Agenda might be sitting on a decent pop but would still need to improve by a point or more to beat an even performing Essential Quality. Rock would have to improve even more but appears close enough to be capable.

The Brisnet, Beyer, and TimeformUS figures don't account for the trip (wide, inside, golden rail, whatever). Looking at different sources can sometimes give a better feel of things. Just gotta be careful falling into the confirmation bias.
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