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Mohawk Vulnerable Favorites Thread
I have been mulling over starting this thread for some time now. This will be an ongoing thread for at least a month. After a month I will then decide whether to continue the thread or its just an exercise in futility. I will be keeping stats and will be sharing with you the results from time to time. I am hoping for a 50 to 60 % hit rate. For the purpose of this thread a vulnerable favorite should not win the race. They can come 2nd or 3rd which most of these vulnerable favorites do end up finishing. I will be targeting the 1st and 2nd morning line favorites which take most of the monies come post time and eventually ending up as the favorites. Weeding out a vulnerable favorite is no easy task. I employ a number of handicapping skills which I have learned over the years which I’ll be discussing during the course of this thread. If you are successful at weeding out a VF (vulnerable favorite) at least 50 to 60 % of the time, you have a chance at making good money in this very tough game. I say this because the horses you will be betting will be going off at decent odds anywhere from 3-1 to 8-1 and even higher. Needless to say weeding out a VF is just half the job and the other half being able to select the right winning horse. For the purpose of this thread we will be concentrating only on the first half ie weeding out the VF. If you have a VF of our own, please chime in this thread. All you have to give out is the track name the date and the horses # and the name of the horse. If you wish to comment on one of my given VFs please do so before the race and not after its all over. Its OK to call me nuts or crazy if one or more of the horses I have declared a VF is the one you liked the most. Enuff said lets get down to business at hand.
Mohawk Thursday April 1, 2021
Race 1 #8 Arrakis is the morning line favorite and rightfully so. He goes into the winning Richard Moreau barn off a claim in his last start. In his last start Arrakis was stalking the leader in the 3 hole when the front end was going at killing pace (-2.03) with a split of 3 secs and yet he managed to get 2nd by 4 lengths. A weak race at best. He went off as the even money favorite and claimed from the 2nd best trainer on the grounds who is no slouch either as a trainer. Arrakis moves from the 2 hole to the tough 8 hole and he is my first VF of the day. The 7/2 morning line favorite is the #2 Apostle Peter and for the life of me I can’t see him winning the race. A definite VF for me.
Race 2 #8 Bluemoon Bayama will be the hot favorite in here. He set a slow pace (+0.47) and prevailed. He is also going in the 8 hole from the favorable 5 hole last time out. I have often seen such horses stop in the stretch. A VF for me.
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