|
To me the case with Orb in the Preakness was simply a good old fashioned nuts and bolts figure handicapping observation and common sense being applied.After pairing up lifetime tops prior to the derby he topped yet again.At 3 years old especially you can only top and top and top so much before you take the step back.
All the rest of the rationalizations I'm hearing are overkill and frankly crap IMO."His stretch run didn't look good....his closing fractions weren't solid(yes,they were)...it was the pace( fast or slow didn't affect him in Florida)...it was the mud.NO it wasn't any of these things.No sophomore horse can move forward continuously.At 3-1 he would have been a bad bet much less 3/5.Plus we witnessed the same thing happen in the Preakness that happened in the BC Classic last year,idiocy prevailed,nobody contested the pace,and and able horse fiilled the void on an uncontested lead.Goldcents played Game On Dude in this one.Orb played Flat Out.I tell you,for experienced horsemen I wonder sometimes if they understand the running style of their horses and what probable pace actually is.Look at Oxbow and how many races after his big 11 length win it took Lukas to figure out how he likes to win.Half the time these guys know as much or less than we do.Sure they might know about fevers and foot issues like we don't.But they don't understand the basics of what wins races and concede easy leads and scratch their heads afterwards.I find it amusing that handicappers follow them down the rabbit hole with secondary factor rationalizations when a simple,textbook,figure handicapping observation would suffice.Mountain out of a molehill.
Last edited by CincyHorseplayer; 05-23-2013 at 09:54 AM.
|
