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Originally Posted by Valuist
Considering Orb was one of the smallest favorites ever in the Derby at 5-1
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I take the rest of your points (a lot of it is valid), but you shouldn't read much into the tepid odds of Derby favorites these days. Some fundamental changes have happened to the Derby over the last 20 years or so:
1. The field is 20 horses or close to it every year. Watch a replay of the 1997 Derby, or the 1973 Derby, or the 1948 Derby, and marvel at how small the fields sometimes were way back when. A 5 to 1 shot in a 20 horse field is actually something like a 2 to 1 shot in a 9 horse field-- not that tepid a favorite at all.
2. Trainers no longer even bother to prepare their horses for the Derby with a solid campaign. They put the horse into a stakes race, win, and then go to the Derby with as little racing experience as possible. They don't want to see the horse get hurt and lose their opportunity to run. It was typical to have 10 or 15 starts before the Derby back in the day; nowadays it's mostly 4, 5, and 6 starts and sometimes less. These lightly raced horses haven't established their form nearly as well, and therefore it's harder for bettors to have any confidence in what they will do in the Derby. This makes the Derby more "wide open" than it used to be.
3. Early betting means that the Derby, unique among American races, has a VERY large percentage of its win pool bet by horseplayers who have no idea the current odds. One of my favorite moments in racing every year comes when they announce at the end of the day Friday that the morning line favorite is no longer favored. This literally happens EVERY YEAR. And nothing is a better demonstration of the pathologies of horseplayers. When the only indication of odds is the morning line, which doesn't move, horseplayers will continue to chunk in more and more money against the favorite, who supposedly doesn't offer any value. Then, on Saturday, seeing the odds all out of whack, they bet the favorite back down. (By the way, the dumb television commentators ALWAYS express surprise at there being a new Derby favorite after Friday betting. They don't seem to understand this happens every year.)
But that Friday and early Saturday money still has a big effect on the odds, and as I said, very little of it is placed on the favorite. The result is the Derby favorite almost always goes off at higher odds than he would if betting on the race started after the previous race went off at Churchill and the tote board was visible at all times during the betting.
