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Originally Posted by bob60566
How has the Derby chalk made out over the the past years.  |
In recent years, they did not do well. Don't have data for distant years, but I would imagine that, overall, they do not win many Derbys. Remember, these are 3 yos, many having never run against each other, nor on the track nor at the distance. And, there are up to 20 starters in the Derby, that alone makes choosing the winner, chalk or not, more difficult. Of course, many favorites in the Derby, are early horses, as in many other races, and in the large Derby field, if an early horse doesn't get a good start his chances of winning are severely degraded, depending on the pace he/she faces in that race. Typically, there are several speed burners in the Derby, which means that some of them will get burned out in the early going and fade badly, leaving the advantage to later running styles and those otherwise advantaged by the pace of the race. Personally, I wouldn't bet a favorite, to win the Derby, "under gunfire". In my superfecta play, however, I might well have the favorite on the win line (if he ranks well enough to be there), with others, because so many times long shots finish in the top 4 and the resulting payouts, even with the favorite winning, can be huge because of the humongous pool for the Derby.
