Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Why in the world would intelligent gamblers shut the door on racing if they see these "teams" raking in millions each year?
That proves right there the game is beatable, either by getting rebates themselves (which isn't all that hard to do) or figuring out a better way to peel the onion (which is what intelligent people do).
You can play alongside these "teams" and win. Just like you can trade the financial markets alongside all those high frequency bots and win.
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I am talking about normal, small scale gamblers. Guys that start with a $10,000 Poker Bankrolll and sports betting bankroll and try and grow a roll. Let me refresh your memory in case you miss Ian's post.
As posted by Ian:
3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. I’m not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that you’re going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.
4. I’m not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. They’re a lot smarter than I am too and I’m a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team I’m working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Don’t you think that is some kind of advantage when you’re working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.
This job opportunity is not exactly open to everyone. Huge startup costs, huge educational requirements and technical knowledge. These are teams of
very smart people and then you have to have a huge betting bankroll on top of that.
I am not saying that guys like Ultracapper cannot raise themsleves to be huge profit makers in this game. Of course they can. I believe poster Bacornswitchfarm did so himself. Of course it can be done. But when other
winning gamblers (poker players, dfs players, sports bettors,....) look at this game and look at the other games, most of them are choosing the other games and are doing so for a very good reason. Also even though a few can rise up in todays game, for the masses it is going to be the same old song year after year, -20 to -30% before breakage. When they can lose a fraction of that playing other games, I wonder where there gambling dollar ends up?
How do you play alongside these teams and win? Do I call Ian and say I want to become an investor or would like a daily ridealong. Maybe they will program my laptop to make 1000 bets in a 1/4 of a second? Moreover if they are getting 18% rebates and I am getting a 7% rebate in a trifecta, they win and I lose. I don't want to follow them anyways, I want to bet against them. But I can't even do that in today's game because I don't who the heck they bet until the far turn.
I get it, your mantra is adapt or die. That Mantra would apply just as well if they eliminated rebates and lowered takeout to the propler levels. But in todays game too many are dying and too few adapting and the result is the game will not sustain long term. In the game I propose that would not be the case. That is the difference.
