Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Code:
Mountaineer Park* Race 8 0 0.00
WIN PLAYS $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN Mountaineer Park* Race 8 $WIN BET SIZES SHOWN # HORSES 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 TOTAL BET
$0 $2 $5 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $0 $1 $7 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $17.66
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11/3 exacta $1 win paid $4.60 at the track
my total bet was $17.66 the return $33.35 (bet sizt to two decimial places was $7.29)
these plays win appox 66% of the time
the minumum average $1 must be 1/.66 = $1.52 to break even
this play returned $33.53/ $17.66 = $1.898
in a 93 race sample that average return was $1.513.
there are 17 races where the play should not be made, then the average return for the remaing races increases to $1.59 at the same win percentage of 66%.
note: with this newly designed play there are but a few races where not only the favorite is eliminated, but 1 additional horse is also eliminated
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Last edited by formula_2002; 10-12-2021 at 10:47 PM.
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