Quote:
Originally Posted by thespaah
Whats the big secret?
See, its this kind of opaqueness in this business that helps create the perception that there is always something to hide.
Now, this is not personal. Take it as you wish.
I cannot understand why anyone with knowledge of a particular subject would quickly respond with "you're wrong, but due to ( fill in the blank) I cannot divulge. Just believe what I tell you".
That does not butter the toast.
Either provide the WHOLE answer, or let it go and don't respond.
Using pure logic here. There are large volume players and wagering syndicates that have been mentioned on this very website that wager millions of dollars per year.
Also, I pay close attention to tote board numbers.
A perfect example of where I get my perception of the whales driving the handle is this.
I'm at a track in NY. Typically the WPS handle DOUBLES or even TRIPLES within one minute to post time. And because many of the large volume players prefer to "hide" their wagers from the public, they are wagering at the last moment of the betting period. "Betting the bell".
So, if the everyday joe is making the handle larger, then why are the lines at the windows not 12 miles long? Or since the number of smaller bets coming in from off site venues required to create such significant numbers are being placed virtually simultaneously, would this not create a significant lag in the collection of data or even crash servers?
I must ask these questions because of the rather cryptic nature of your explanation.
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1. Others have paid me for those type of insights. It would be unfair to give away that research for free.
2. I never said it is the $2 bettor that is driving handle. It's no secret that it's not. Many causal fans have been driven out of the game. That's a problem now and will be a bigger problem going forward. I do believe that the change related to W2Gs is or should be a big positive influence to the casual player.
3. I'm not disputing a large % of CAW handle is made very late in the wagering cycle. It's not all of it though, despite what you may have heard. I also believe it's
very important to differentiate wagers made late but
before the gates open and those wagers that are past-posted. There are more than a few on this board (and others) that
do not make that distinction and claim that there is a great deal of handle being past-posted. That is simply not the case.
4. As far as lines at the windows, 90% of handle now comes in from off-site. That's across all tracks. When you factor in higher on-track handle at SAR, KEE, DMR,etc it's probably like 91-92% for other tracks. Hence, no long lines at the windows. That time has come and gone.
5. I rarely post these days. Typically when I do it's to correct egregious misinformation. This game has enough problems. There's no reason for people to distort the truth to make it seem worse than it is. Again that's nothing personal. I'm sure you believe CAW handle is 3/4 of the total. Maybe you've read that here or elsewhere in cyberspace. I just didn't want anyone else seeing that figure and believing it too, or worse yet spreading that. CAW teams are not betting $7 billion a year. If there were a dozen large teams they'd each be betting on average $600 million a year. Is that what people
really think? I can tell you there are
zero teams betting $600mm a year into our pools let alone a dozen of them.
