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Surface switches are a major hole in my game. I've looked at general stats, but I've never been particularly good at figuring out which horses will make the switch well and which won't (or back).
Some horses are obviously meant for turf and the switch to turf is to get them where they belong.
Others are horses that are failing on dirt. So the switch to turf is an act of hope and desperation.
Some are horses that are similar on both surfaces and the connections are just looking for the best spot available on the schedule now.
The tough ones are the lightly raced horses that improved when they switched surfaces. You can't always tell if it was the surface switch or development that was the primary reason for the improvement. If you just toss them all when they switch back, you are going to find out it was development and not the surface switch a little too often for my taste.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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